What Failed Tsunami Predictions Teach Us About Business Forecasting

We dive into the reality of using LinkedIn for lead generation and why audio content might be making a surprising comeback while video content becomes less effective for busy professionals.

• LinkedIn claims 80% of B2B leads originate there, but regional businesses may find better results on local platforms like Alignable
• AI-powered prospecting shows 30% higher conversion rates when properly implemented
• Video content gets higher engagement but requires significant time investment for both creators and viewers
• Audio-only content is experiencing a resurgence as people seek to reduce screen time
• Business forecasting parallels the recent tsunami prediction – preparation matters, but overreacting to hype wastes resources
• Consistency trumps production quality in podcasting – create 100 episodes before expecting significant results

Check out Michigan Renaissance Festival starting August 16th and join our in-person networking group on the first Thursday of each month called Networking with Kids – find us on Eventbrite, Alignable, and Meetup

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Chapters

• 0:58 Welcome to Trading Post Podcast
• 3:17 Confessions of a Doomsdayer
• 4:51 LinkedIn Lead Generation Struggles
• 10:17 Audio vs. Video Content Trends
• 18:40 Business Forecasts and Tsunami Predictions
• 25:40 AI-Powered Strategies and Final Thoughts

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:02

Hello and welcome to the Trading Post podcast, where we unlock the secrets of business to business trade, dive into powerful networking strategies and share my exciting journey of using a podcast to market my business instead of relying on SEO. I'm your host, trader Stu. Hello everyone and welcome back to the Trading Post podcast with your host, trader Stu. This episode is sponsored by the Michigan Renaissance Festival and, of course, I've got to mention Metro Trading Association and my in-person meetup group that networks every Thursday, first Thursday of the month, called Networking with Kids. You'll find that on Eventbrite and Alignable and Meetup. And, of course, be sure to check out the Michigan Renaissance Festival this fall Actually, it opens August 16th and get your tickets and check that out if you haven't been. Always a good time, always a blast, and I will have a commercial for that here in the mid-roll, so stay tuned for that. And what else do we got here going on? Oh, I wanted to mention one more thing. I am playing beta testing whatever. I bought a microphone and that is for interviewing. My idea is to go out, to want to go to networking events. I'm at something probably every week, maybe twice a week, and I just feel like it's a wasted opportunity to ask all these entrepreneurs and business owners and things like that, just like maybe two, three quick questions, you know, right there at the networking event. And so I'm actually testing the microphone as we speak right now and just seeing how it sounds, how it works, all that good stuff. So it sounds good in my head right now. I've got the earphones on, but we'll see how she produces here once I get everything uploaded and edited and all that good stuff. But so far, so good. I like it. It's got the windbreak mic on it and it's actually for the DGI microphone. So if you guys are looking at doing podcasting and you have a dgi mic, that's all you need and get up and running. You only need you need that. That's actually kind of expensive for most people. I think 300 bucks or two, I don't know what they are. I got the original, not the new one, they're probably 200 and something you know for the doom like. Anyway, uh, let's get on with it. This episode is.

Speaker 1: 2:25

I'm kind of correlating a couple of different things here and with hope, not hope and hype, I guess hype, but I'm kind of I'm going to be confessing to you guys real quick I'm a little bit of a doomsdayer. I mean I've been prepping since I lived in Florida, I'd have to say so. We're going back to 2000,. Literally just 2000. No dates after that 2000. And hurricanes, you know, in Florida I was down at the Pensacola area and we got hit a couple of times with them. So you know I always had MREs in the water, flashlights et cetera and I just carried that with me and people thought I was crazy in Michigan or whatever. But you know what? It doesn't matter, because my preps turned into saving our tails when I lost my job last year. So you know what it worked out.

Speaker 1: 3:21

So, turning LinkedIn lead generation trends into real world results, with a twist of hope and hype and I'm talking about hype with the tsunamis. That's what I was getting at with uh prepping, uh, the tsunami and july 5th 2025. At what was the time? 3 18 am japan time, so it was like 4 18 our time, I think. Pm july 4th. There was supposed to be that lady. Uh predicted it. I'll get into it later, but it didn't happen. Anyway, we're gonna talk about all that good stuff.

Speaker 1: 3:55

So the state of linkedin and lead generation I want to get into that real quick because I have been striking out on this LinkedIn game. Man, I do the one post a day. I like, I comment, I repost, I post. You know I think I do get some traffic on LinkedIn anyways with the podcast here, because I get a spike in listeners when I upload it to there. So it does work for podcasting and I think that's my problem is that for my, the main line of business that bread and butter that feeds me and the kids in the way is a Metro Trading Association and it's just too niched down. I'm too regional for LinkedIn. I think LinkedIn is great for businesses that are national, maybe even international, but for someone who's just trying to drum up some business in like the metro Detroit area, I think it's an overshoot. Which is why I think Alignable does so well for me, because that is literally geared to be like a local social media business to business. Local social media business to business. I guess business to consumer though I'm not sure how the consumer thing would work. I guess if I'm on there and I get a cleaning service, I guess I'm now a and it's for my home, I guess I'm a consumer. But really, if you check out line of's, business to business is what it's kind of geared for. Anyway, this is saying that LinkedIn is king for business to business leads, with over 80% of B2B leads now originate from LinkedIn, making it the single most powerful platform for business networking and sales.

Speaker 1: 5:42

Like I said, I've tried it and I've also even tried the sales navigator, and the sales navigator thing didn't really work for me. I tried it for a month the free trial. I got no leads from it, no traffic, nothing more that I didn't already get going from the you know free LinkedIn version. Anyway, maybe I didn't use it right, maybe I didn't put enough time and effort into it, maybe I didn't commit to it enough, I don't know, but I think that something like that shouldn't be so hands-on-y either. I think it should be somewhat automated set it up, do a couple posts, do a couple emails. I don't know. Like I said, maybe I was just too niched down, but the average b2b buyer does more than half of their research online before talking to a salesperson, meaning your linkedin presence is your first impression.

Speaker 1: 6:35

What's funny is that I had a linkedin profile set up back for my adt days and I really wish I didn't delete that thing. I probably could call them and be like or message them. No one answers the phone anymore these days and say, hey, I'd like to reinstate. I had tons of people on there, man, but my other job I had before I got back with Metro Trading is that I deleted everything. I even threw away my jacket for Metro Trading. So I was like, oh, I'm going to be here for the rest of my life. I don't need this, no more. I don't need a linkedin profile, I'm not going to go nowhere, my head, I'm not searching for a job, I'm not trying to generate leads, you know. So goodbye, goodbye, got rid of it.

Speaker 1: 7:14

Facebook dawn deleted that, deleted all my youtube videos, my youtube channel. I actually ticked somebody off one time because he lost some. Something that I did for him, got paid for. It was a video editing thing that we did and I had it on my channel and I deleted it, of course, when the channel left and I think I got it off the computer too, because it had been years. And he was like, hey, do you still have that video you did for me back at Cabbage Patch Saloon? I said, no, man, like that was three years ago, dude. He's what I'm supposed to do now, you know. I'm like, well, I don't, I don't know, it's not my problem anymore. You had the thumbnail and then he got back. He just was too lazy to look for his thumb, not thumbnail, thumb drive, my god, thumbnail. And uh, he found his thumb drive and all as well, but that just goes to show that people are just would rather look for the digital version rather than the physical format.

Speaker 1: 8:06

Anyway, so there's five cutting-edge strategies for 2025 to look at for your lead generation. That's intent-based prospecting using AI to track behaviors like content engagement. Website visits. Companies sees a 30% higher conversion rate. So I'm going to confess something here.

Speaker 1: 9:24

Yes, I used AI today to build this script. Yes, I did. I went to, I tried doing my old way of YouTube, where you go to Google Analytics or no, google Trends that's what it was Google Trends and you can search for your topic, right, and it shows how many people there's like a breakout if it spikes. There's a trending or ascending or descending, whatever it's called. The unfortunate thing with podcasts is that there is no one search tool that you can find for who's searching for what on podcasts, right?

Speaker 1: 10:05

So today was a wild card for me. I was just like you know what? What's happening out there in the world today. There's supposed to be a tsunami, there's AI issues going on when the jobs are going away, world War III, right, what's happening out there? So I actually used Perplexity's AI and I used that to say, hey, what's going on out there, what's happening on Alignable and LinkedIn and what are people talking about on Reddit and whatever, right? And it just generated this topic for me to come up with, or I didn't come up with it, hey, I did, and just to chat about and I had it, I summarized it and all that good stuff, right. So, and here I am uh, talking in your ear about it because I'm saving you the time from having to do your own research. And here you are, in the car or whatever, listening to it.

Speaker 1: 10:54

So what else? Optimized linkedin profiles, optimized LinkedIn profiles yes, profiles of professional photos and clear headlines receive 21 times more views and nine times more connection requests. Huh, I should really update my profile photo, I think is I don't know what it is, it's old and the headline I don't know. I'll look into it. Like I said, kind of lost faith in LinkedIn. But with that being said, again, you know, fourth wall break.

Speaker 1: 11:29

It's great for my podcast, for this podcast, the Trading Post gets traction on LinkedIn. Honest to God, I get zero on trying to find businesses that would like to join metro trading to. You know, trade and barter, but you know uh. And then but here's a caveat so the trading post podcast is talking about, you know, b2b leads, uh, generation of leads, whatever, networking, um, and how to increase sales, which is trade and barter. And then, of course, I'm talking to you about the pros and cons, or whatever you want to call it, the trials and tribulations of using a podcast for networking or for business building. Anyway, this was supposed to be a trending thing and no one's doing it. It's because it's like a lot of time investment, right, using a podcast to build a brand image or whatever and to promote your business is a lot, and so, yeah, so that's what we're doing anyways.

Speaker 1: 12:35

Then what else we got? Advanced LinkedIn tools sales navigator users report a 15% higher win rate. Lead generation forms boost lead capture efficiency by 50% or more. Again, I'm not going to even talk about that. This is just a statistic, but I don't have anything good to say about Sales Navigator. So on we go To the fourth one Content-driven engagement. Sharing valuable posts, articles and especially video content increases engagement and conversions by at least 50%.

Speaker 1: 13:09

So let's talk about video real quick, all right. So podcasting is supposed to be. I don't want to say it's the quick thing, quick, dirty way of getting a message out there, but it's definitely far less editing. Maybe I'm over picky with lighting and cuts and camera angles and transitions, but I tried doing the video podcasting thing in my sauna. I did the sauna studio and I set up all the lights and the audio equipment and all that and I just, I don't know, I didn't get nothing out of it. I didn't really see any. I didn't like it. I don't. I prefer just audio only. And, to be fair, anymore I think video is actually kind of dying again. I think we're on a trend of going back in time to the radio days.

Speaker 1: 14:05

My son has a Tony. It's called a Tony. It's a square box if you don't know what they are, and you get these little figurines and you put these magnetic figurines on top of the box and it tells you a story. Or it tells you if it's about sea life. It tells you all about octopus and sharks and how they hunt and how they you know about sea life. It tells you all about octopus and sharks and how they hunt and how they. You know, whatever it tells you. All this stuff it's a story of how, of education. There's even songs, there's whatever. There's Disney stuff there's you can record your voice of, like recording, like a telling us, like a story. So it's great for like people who are on the road, you can read your kids a bedtime story and then they can hear it while you're gone, you know, and then play it back. Very cool, there's no video, it's just audio. That's to help the kid to go to sleep.

Speaker 1: 15:00

Get off the screen time. Everyone's getting away from screen time and I've mentioned that before. But when I am, I I follow this. Like I said, I'm a doomsdayer, the prepper news guy in Canadian prepper. I'll, I'll do the share and copy the link into perplexity and I'll just say Cliff notes or Synopsis of, and then control V, right Control, paste the link, hit enter and it takes an hour and five minute long video which is basically a podcast, cause he's just sitting in front of a monitor or he's even in his car with a video, like a camera on the dash and he's reading his script and and it's an hour long or whatever, or more or less, just whatever. But I can read his entire spiel CliffsNote version summarized up for me within, you know, several paragraphs. Or I can even have it bullet pointed. I'll just I'll say okay, great. If it's a long like transcript, I'll say convert, great. If it's a long transcript, I'll say convert into bullet points, done and it's gone.

Speaker 1: 16:08

I don't listen, I don't waste hours. I did this morning, to be fair. Yes, dude, this weekend was so hot I tried putting up a bat house and I sweat my butt off, dude, so I had nothing left in me, no juice this morning. But usually I'll just read a couple of YouTube videos I'm into and perplexity and I'll go out in the garage or tinker or do whatever I need to start working out, but whatever, it saves me a ton of time as I'm getting at.

Speaker 1: 16:35

So we're going back to reading and audio and like radio days. I won't be surprised if they modernize like the family radio. How cool would that be? Remember the old school tube radios? They were like a piece of furniture made out of like carved wood with a that one speaker on it and the dials. I can totally see them converting something like that into like you know, you can put tony's on it, or they get satellite radio am fm I think am's gone. Who listens to am anywhere? My grandpa did listen to baseball games and that wasn't always annoying, always this feedback and the static was just always terrible, or I don't know whatever. Cbs right hf maybe, I don't know.

Speaker 1: 17:21

But I think we're getting to the point in time to where video is now too slow for us to keep our attention spans, so it takes too long. It's a long, drawn-out process to tell a story and anymore all the videos are on YouTube is just telling a story, or they're reading a script, or it's an AI reading a script. I can read whatever you're talking about in a minute for your hour, right? So I'm sticking with podcasting. I'm only going to do audio only. I'm not going to worry about these people on LinkedIn that are trying to get me into. Hey, why don't you advertise your podcast with video TikToks? Because, man for one, you want to charge me money for it.

Speaker 1: 18:10

It's kind of like gold I like in podcasting and social media and trying to get social media wealthy off of chasing gold. Remember the Wow Wow West was like come on up toifornia, it's a gold rush and you'll, you'll, you'll strike it rich and you'll make millions, right, people went by the droves and, like you never hear, I don't know who got all the gold, but I do know who got rich off of the people getting the gold, and those were the people selling the shovels and pickaxes, right, or the camping gear, or the tents and the food and whatever right. They're the ones who made the money, not the fools out there trying to make it rich. Not saying they're fools, but fool's gold, you know, because a fraction of one percent Found enough gold to make it worth their while and pay the bills. Anyway, what else we got?

Speaker 1: 19:06

Ai-powered personalization is the number five, so let me turn the page here. Like I said, I'm literally just printed this out, and so AI tailors the messaging and content, making outreach more relevant and boosting engagement. All right, the rise of video and on-the-go interviews. Video content, especially live and short form, dominates engagement. On LinkedIn, live video gets 24 times more engagement than static posts. Well, yeah, because people, it catches your eye and if it looks like a funny thing thing, you're gonna click on it. See, this is what I want to do right here, user DGI Mike, to capture authentic, in the moment interviews at networking events. Yeah, adding human touch, of course.

Speaker 1: 19:55

That's what I'm saying the reality versus projections, learning from missed tsunamis, the powers and pitfalls of business forecasts. Every business makes projections sales, growth, market trends but reality often diverges, sometimes dramatically. Compare your plan to actual results is essential. It reveals what's working and what's not and where to pivot. Reviews what's working and what's not and where to pivot. So like, for example, I know a bike shop owner. They thought they were going to get a lot of sales but ended up making more revenue by selling fewer units at a higher price. So you know it's easier to have a better bike and sell less for more than it is to sell more bikes for less. So the hopeful trends and hype cycles In business we often chase the next big thing. So there's AI, new platforms, viral trends, sometimes with tsunami level expectations. But just like the much hyped july 5th tsunami prediction by baba vinga, which is a rio tatutsuki I can't pronounce her name, but that didn't happen and not every forecasted event or trend materializes.

Speaker 1: 21:14

I think I have a big lead up to it 1047 tremors this week alone in japan, you know, and I was even kind of smart. I was like how many do they average anyways? Like 1,000 is a lot. What's the average? I was like 20. So, okay, they were way higher, but how often do they go above trend? I don't know.

Speaker 1: 21:33

I think I'm so exhausted with just news anymore. I actually tried deleting YouTube. I had it off my phone for, I think, a whole day. Then I spent three and a half hours in the Xfinity store trying to upgrade our phones and I had a toddler with us and guess what? I had to get back on my phone to keep busy while I talked to business, because I could not keep this kid, you know, quiet enough to play with his cars and not make siren noises while I'm trying to over-talk him to the guy at Xfinity. Anyway, you try, you do, you come back. I'll delete it again, I'm sure.

Speaker 1: 22:13

So the lesson is use hopeful trends and inspirations, but always ground your strategy and data and adaptability. So the July 5th tsunami that wasn't. And here's what it taught us, I think. And so in 2025, the artist predicted mega tsunami for July 5th and that sparked a lot of anxiety. People actually canceled their trips to Japan. The tourism took a huge hit from. So, from what they were saying anyways, social media buzzed, but the disaster never occurred.

Speaker 1: 22:49

And a reminder that all predictions come true. And, if you don't know, she predicted, I guess, supposedly 9-11 and Princess Diana's death and what else? Covid, a couple other things, but it's easy to say they predicted something after the fact, right? So here's the parallel. Just as a business must, uh, prepare for worst case scenarios, they already got prepared for the non-event. That doesn't happen when the big prediction doesn't arrive. And you hear about that all the time, right? Oh, we're expecting this huge big christmas rush and they order all this supply, all the stock that's non-retable, non-refundable for the store to sell and the rush never happens. Now they're stuck with 10,000 units of whatever they didn't sell. That actually happened. With what was that? I wanted to get that mobile smoker from Master Grill or whatever they are, and you can buy it lowest head them on sale for like, I think, a hundred bucks and they're like a four dollar unit anyway.

Speaker 1: 23:49

So overacting to hype can waste resources, ignoring real trends, and leave you behind. Plan, monitor and adapt as the key balance for that one. So real-world voices at networking events and interviews I have experienced. So, yeah, you know what? I just kind of browsed this one. I don't really like it. I'm not going to talk about it. It's just talking about networking event interviews, which, basically, if you want to do interviews, try and do it. Go to networking events, talk about things with everybody, or just actually go to the business and check them out. And if you're doing b2b anyway or whatever, so there's that too. All right, so what instant? In summary, so ai powered prospecting, the impact is usually 30 higher. Uh, real world outcome is. Outcome depends on the execution.

Speaker 1: 24:42

But the lesson is use AI, but measure and adjust. I'm using AI. I don't use it for everything, but I do like it. I think it saves me a ton of time, it saves me from the overwhelm and at least it gives me some predictors of or not predictors, but like what topics I could use and then adjust from there. Right, so that's it. I mean, everything's meant to be tried and true, or try that, try it in trial and error. So I would say just try, try it out, and while you're either young in life or young in the game I mean I'm still under you know the hundred. Uh, podcast upload thing. I'm still young.

Speaker 1: 25:22

What was his name? Jimmy? Mr beast said you know, people want to be YouTube famous. He tells them tell you what? Why don't you record a hundred episodes first? Then come talk to me, then we'll. We'll see what we'll get a game plan, because if you can't do a hundred episodes, episodes just because you want to.

Speaker 1: 25:44

He was into it, he didn't care, he loved YouTubing way before. He made all the money. And people won't do it. He says he never hears back, they never get to 100. You know how many is 100? It's a lot. I'm already past all the YouTube videos I think I've ever uploaded with the podcast here. So you know, youtubing is hard. It's a racket dude. You got to have a team editors, sound video editing, whatever. It's all tough man. It takes forever. It's a time hack from your life. So do it while you're in high school and you got nothing else to do. Maybe I don't know I did, but I partied too much so I was still distracted. So at any rate, that's it for now. Whatever you do out there, y'all be good or be good at it Until next time.